Judging by the results this weekend of the first major industry test of where the Oscar winds could be blowing, it was basically a draw as we now have results from both the DGA and BAFTA.
Both these groups, as well as the upcoming SAG, PGA, and to a slightly lesser extent due to their eligibility quirks, the WGA, are considered the most important bellwethers for Oscar as their memberships heavily cross over with actual Oscar voters as opposed to critics groups.
Earlier televised awards shows like Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, but both composed also of journalists, split their Best Picture choices between The Banshees Of Inisherin (GG Comedy), The Fabelmans (GG Drama), and Everything Everywhere All At Once (CCA).
But now for the first time we are hearing from the industry and that is key for prognosticators. Sometimes the race can turn on a dime, or they can really muddy the waters.
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