Global Box Office Predicted to Fall in 2024 Following Hollywood Strikes

variety.com:

Patrick Frater Asia Bureau Chief After making a partial post-pandemic recovery, global cinema box office is expected to retreat again in 2024, as the twin writers’ and actors’ strikes of 2023 are forecast to have a negative impact on theatrical revenues.

Box office research firm Gower Street Analytics, in a preliminary draft of its annual forecast, says that worldwide cinema box office should weigh in at $33.4 billion for 2023.

But next year could be 5% lower, at $31.5 billion. The 2024 global projection would put the year’s total 20% below the average of the last three pre-pandemic years, 2017-2019.

The forecasts are derived from a combination of Gower Street’s Forecast Database, currently-known release calendars and additional analyst assessments. “Given that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the anticipated 5% year-on-year decrease in 2023 is not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos. “In fact, as July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, we know that there is a robust audience demand for compelling theatrical releases.” “The impact of the recent writers’ and actors’ strikes on the release calendar, in terms of global-appeal Hollywood product, has been significant,” said Rob Mitchell, director of theatrical insights at Gower Street. “That is the key driver of this slight regression in recovery momentum we’re seeing in 2024 that looks to postpone any chance of returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.” The company says that its understanding of the titles likely to release in 2025 point to, “a very good year at the global box office and hopefully a positive trend-setter.