wrote Wednesday, “On the one hand, I don’t entirely understand the polls-were-wrong storyline. This year was definitely a little weird, given that the vote share margins were often fairly far off from the polls (including in some high-profile examples such as Wisconsin and Florida).
But at the same time, a high percentage of states (likely 48 out of 50) were ‘called’ correctly, as was the overall Electoral College and popular vote winner (Biden).
And that’s usually how polls are judged: Did they identify the right winner?”Silver went on to say that “the margins by which the polls missed — underestimating President Trump by what will likely end up being 3 to 4 percentage points in national and swing state polls — is actually pretty normal by.
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