SAG Awards Analysis: Oscar Race Upended As ‘CODA’, Jessica Chastain & Apple Score Big In First Test Of Guild Strength

deadline.com:

It was a night when the pundit-predicted Oscar-season frontrunners The Power of the Dog and Belfast came up empty, and longer shots like CODA and The Eyes of Tammy Faye won key races that promise to add a bit more suspense as we glide toward the Oscars.The big movie winner of the night, CODA, was one I saw coming and in my Notes on the Season column on Friday predicted both of its victories for Supporting Actor Troy Kotsur, who became the first deaf actor to win an individual SAG Award and first to win two since he was also part of its Outstanding Cast Award victory.

That was another race I called, not just because of the historic circumstances of seeing the first-ever predominantly deaf cast win the big one, but also because it is such a universal story of family that anyone can relate to: moving, funny and real.As it has done in the past, this SAG Cast award can energize an Oscar campaign, which is what happened when Parasite took the same prize two years ago and rode it all the way to Best Picture.

The sheer enthusiasm and excitement generated by that win in the audience that night at SAG was palpable, and so tonight was this win for CODA, a movie that also showed its awards potential early on after its Sundance debut in January 2021 where it took all four major narrative prizes in an unprecedented sweep.

It is nominated for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay and for Kotsur at the Oscars, and you have to think that Apple TV+ will capitalize even more on this long-shot Oscar bid.