Oscar Race at the Halfway Point: Have We Seen Any Real Contenders Yet?
thewrap.comBest PictureWhen “CODA” won the Best Picture Oscar in March, it became the first Sundance film ever to accomplish that feat, though far from the first to be nominated: Over the past decade, 11 Sundance premieres have received nominations, far more than any other first-half-of-the-year festival.
But this year’s crop of films from Park City didn’t have any clear best-pic contenders; it’s more likely to supply some Spirit Award contenders, or to stir up some dark-horse acting candidates like Emma Thompson (“Here’s to You, Leo Grande”) and Dale Dickey (“A Love Song”).Chances are better for a couple of major-studio releases, Paramount’s “Top Gun: Maverick” and Warner Bros.’ “Elvis.” It’s not easy to ride a January-through-June release to a Best Picture nomination, though “Black Panther” and “Get Out” have done it, and “Top Gun” in particular is the kind of action-heavy crowd-pleaser that rarely gets nominated outside of the craft categories. (Being a blockbuster hit might help a little, but box-office clout doesn’t typically carry much weight with Oscar voters.)The Oscars have been getting quirkier and more international in recent years, which could help A24’s surprise hit “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” but that film’s delirious freneticism will be a tough sell for a lot of voters.
And while the Cannes lineup has supplied eight Best Picture nominees in the past decade, including 2019 winner “Parasite,” all of this year’s entries are long shots.
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