The Power of the Dog, with over 20 critics awards and a Golden Globe win now to his name. McPhee’s skilled, understated performance doesn’t fit the typical mold of an Oscar winner, but strong praise for the film as a whole will carry him far.
The other near-lock in this category is Troy Kotsur for his heartwarming performance in CODA. Earlier in the year, many speculated that the actor would be too much of an unknown to snag a nomination.
Now, him and McPhee are the only actors with Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG nominations. He’s likely to be the second deaf actor ever nominated for an Academy Award, 35 years after his co-star Marlee Matlin got her lead actress nomination, and win, for Children of a Lesser God.
What to do about the Belfast boys? Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds were both widely expected to share the category in a similar fashion to Kaluuya and Stanfield in last year’s Judas and the Black Messiah, DeNiro and Pacino in The Irishman, and Rockwell and Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.
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