Oscar Nomination Predictions: Expect ‘Dune’ to Dominate in Another Weird Year

thewrap.com:

BEST PICTUREYes, the Motion Picture Academy membership is becoming more international, but the Hollywood guild awards are still the strongest indicators of what will do well with Oscar voters.

And those guilds have been reinforcing what we suspected when “The Power of the Dog” premiered in Venice and “Belfast” followed in Toronto.

Those two films were the front runners then, and they still are — and they’re still followed by “Dune” and two later releases, “West Side Story” and “Licorice Pizza.”If you figure that the Screen Actors Guild Awards’ ensemble-cast nominations make “King Richard,” “CODA” and “Don’t Look Up” likely nominees as well, that leaves two open spots now that the Academy has returned to a guaranteed 10 nominees in the category.

The Producers Guild went with “tick, tick…BOOM!” and “Being the Ricardos,” but Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” has racked up guild nominations and Joel Coen’s “The Tragedy of Macbeth” has passionate fans and could take advantage of the Academy’s ranked-choice voting system. (Remember, the last time there were 10 guaranteed nominees, the Coen brothers’ divisive “A Simple Man” rode that system to a nom.)And then there are two more questions.