Oscar Predictions 2022: ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘CODA’ Go Down to the Wire for Top Prize

thewrap.com:

Best PictureNominees:“Belfast”“CODA”“Don’t Look Up”“Drive My Car”“Dune”“King Richard”“Licorice Pizza”“Nightmare Alley”“The Power of the Dog”“West Side Story”“The Power of the Dog” has won at the Directors Guild and BAFTA and Critics Choice and Golden Globes – but all season long, I’ve had a feeling that “Power” would prove to be too austere and arty, that it wouldn’t have the broad support it needed to win under the preferential system that’s used to count votes in this category.

But for months, nothing else showed that it could craft the consensus needed to beat “Power.”In the homestretch, though, a legitimate challenger emerged: not “Belfast” or “King Richard,” both of which once seemed capable of amassing the kind of widespread support needed to win, but “CODA,” a surprise hit at Sundance in 2021 that was acquired by Apple and won the SAG ensemble award, the key Producers Guild Award and a Writers Guild Award.“The Power of the Dog” will probably get a big boost from the international voters who may make up as much as a quarter of the Academy, while “CODA” is less divisive and can point to being a landmark in the depiction of deaf people on screen. (“Belfast” remains a outside possibility because it could be international votes and the support of older U.S.

voters.)The race seems almost too close to call, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that “Power” is closer to the films the Academy has crowned the last two years, “Parasite” and “Nomadland.” Still, “CODA” stayed under the radar for a full year after Sundance and now may be peaking at the right time.Predicted winner: “CODA”Best DirectorNominees:Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”Ryusuke Hamaguchi,.