The Oscar Race After the Festivals: ‘The Fabelmans’ Is on Top, but Dangers Await

thewrap.com:

really mean? That “The Fabelmans” will win Best Picture because it’s a very personal coming-of-age story from one of our most revered filmmakers, and because it’s also about the movies?

That Fraser will win Best Actor for his harrowing performance in Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale?” That Blanchett will win Best Actress for playing an out-of-control conductor in Todd Fields’ “Tár?”And, while we’re throwing out predictions, that the supporting Oscars will go to Michelle Williams for “The Fabelmans” and, say, Brendan Gleeson for “The Banshees of Inisherin?”Yeah, maybe all of those things will happen.

Maybe “The Fabelmans” will be a rare film that emerges from the fall festivals as the frontrunner and never loses momentum. (Hey, “Nomadland” did it two years ago.) Maybe the critical raves for Fraser and Blanchett and the others will turn into industry raves once voters start seeing the films.But it’s too early to say any of that for sure, and the smart money says there will be lots of changes between now and March, when final Oscar ballots are cast.

After all, “The Fabelmans” may have won the same TIFF award that “Nomadland” and “Green Book” won – but it’s also the award that best-picture losers “Belfast,” “Jojo Rabbit” and “La La Land” won, too.